AN OPERATIONAL AUTO-MONITORING FOR THE EL NINO EPISODES USING GMS TBB     

马岚  江吉喜  李小龙  吴晓京 《热带气象学报(英文版)》2004,10(1):87-94

By making full use of GMS TBB data, diagnosis and analysis of the formation and development of El Nino event in 2002 and 2003 were made. It suggests that the first clue of the El Nino event appeared in December 2001. The event was formed at the end of 2002 after five phases of development, and came into the phase of flourishing in the winter of 2002. From the analysis the dynamics, it is noted that that the position of the ascending branch of Walker cell was moving from the equatorial west Pacific to the equatorial central Pacific in the phase of formation and development of the El Nino event. The process of diagnosis shows that it can provide an important clue for forecasting the genesis and development of the El Nino episodes.  相似文献   

不同类型ENSO事件对初冬北极海冰的影响     

刘远盈  袁潮霞 《气象科学》2024,44(1):35-45

基于1951—2019年NCEP/NCAR再分析资料、Hadley环流中心海温、海冰密集度资料,通过合成分析和诊断温度异常方程,研究不同类型ENSO对初冬北极海冰的影响。结果表明,EP La Ni1a发展年初冬(11—12月),巴伦支—喀拉海海冰异常减少;CP La Ni1a发展初冬,巴伦支—喀拉海海冰异常增加。EP和CP型El Ni1o对初冬北极海冰的影响类似：格陵兰海海冰异常减少,而哈德逊—巴芬湾海冰异常增加。不同类型ENSO对初冬北极海冰的影响主要通过产生不同的大气遥相关,引起同期和前期的海表气温异常而实现。  相似文献   

据赤道经向风剖面及岛屿站风资料诊断厄尔尼诺事件     

厉善华  林传兰 《海洋学研究》1998,16(3):1-6

据赤道经向风剖面及热带西太平洋岛屿站测风资料来诊断厄尔尼诺（ＥｌＮｉｎｏ）事件,试图从观测事实方面来跟踪与预测ＥｌＮｉｎｏ的发生。分析结果得出：气候监测公报中８５０ｈＰａ风指数对监测、诊断已发生的ＥｌＮｉｎｏ事件较好,但不能用来预测ＥｌＮｉｎｏ事件的发生,而热带西太平洋岛屿站月平均纬向风对ＥｌＮｉｎｏ事件的发生有一定的指示意义。从越赤道气流的演变特征进一步证明,ＥｌＮｉｎｏ事件对应于弱季风,而拉尼娜（ＬａＮｉｎａ）事件对应于强季风。  相似文献   

中国大陆地壳单颗粒锆石U-Pb年代学特征:国内文献数据的初步分析     

方先君  武于靖  廖丝丝  薛莅治  陈喆  宋彪  张磊  季建清 《岩石学报》2018,34(11):3253-3265

锆石U-Pb年代学方法已经成为地质学研究必不可少的方法。本文收集整理了二十世纪八十年代以来分散在期刊论文、学位论文等多种出版载体中的锆石U-Pb年代学数据,建成中国大陆单颗粒锆石数据库中文子库。该数据子库涉及截至到2017年底的文献2331篇,有效数据154768条目,数据总量已经能够用来进行数据的初步分析和相关地球科学研究。数据子库中年龄-年龄绝对误差关系的分析表明,Age(~(206)Pb/~(238)U)、Age(~(207)Pb/~(235)U)、Age(~(207)Pb/~(206)Pb)在不同的地质年代区间误差表现有所不同。在小于1684.4Ma、1684.4~2855.2Ma、大于2855.2Ma年龄区Age(~(206)Pb/~(238)U)、Age(~(207)Pb/~(235)U)、Age(~(207)Pb/~(206)Pb)的误差最小、置信度最好,除了Age(~(207)Pb/~(235)U)测试方法的原因外,Age(~(206)Pb/~(238)U)和Age(~(207)Pb/~(206)Pb)可分别作为不同年龄段的推荐年龄。将选用的推荐年龄运用于LA-ICP-MS、SHRIMP、SIMS三种方法的比较,得出其适用于不同地质年代的范围。推荐年龄运用于年龄-频数图中并使用高斯多峰拟合,则可发现中国大陆锆石存在6个生长峰期,分别为131.71Ma、255.17Ma、442.42Ma、811.56Ma、1868.36Ma和2505.31Ma等;更小尺度下的新生代则存在七个峰期,分别为16.99Ma、27.64Ma、35.26Ma、43.44Ma、48.27Ma、52.74Ma和62.07Ma等,峰期及其对应测试点的位置可与中国大陆地壳演化重大历史事件对应。  相似文献   

中国华北雾霾天气与超强El Ni?o事件的相关性研究   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0       下载免费PDF全文

袁媛  周宁芳  李崇银 《地球物理学报》2017,60(1):11-21

2015年11—12月,全国接连发生七次大范围、持续性雾霾天气过程,其中,11月27日—12月1日的雾霾天气过程持续时间长达五天,成为2015年最强的一次重污染天气过程;12月19-25日重度雾霾再次发展,影响面积一度达到35.2万km~2.本文利用多种数据资料通过个例对比和历史统计详细分析了超强El Ni?o背景下雾霾天气频发的天气气候条件.其结果清楚表明:2015年11—12月欧亚中高纬度以纬向环流为主,东亚冬季风偏弱,使得影响我国的冷空气活动偏少,我国中东部大部地区对流层低层盛行异常偏南风,大气相对湿度明显偏大,并且大气层结稳定,对流层底层存在明显逆温.上述大气环流条件使得污染物的水平和垂直扩散条件差,因此在有一定污染排放的情况下,造成了重度雾霾天气过程的频发.由此,超强El Ni?o事件所导致的大尺度大气环流异常是我国中东部,尤其华北地区冬季雾霾天气频发的重要原因之一.  相似文献   

Quantification of contemporary storm-induced boulder transport on an intertidal shore platform using radio frequency identification technology     

Linley Hastewell  Robert Inkpen  Malcolm Bray  Martin Schaefer 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2020,45(7):1601-1621

Extreme storm events are known to produce, entrain, transport and deposit sizable boulders along rocky coastlines. However, the extent to which these processes occur under moderate, fetch-limited wave conditions is seldom considered. In this study we quantify boulder transport at a relatively sheltered location subject to high-frequency, low-magnitude storm activity. This was achieved by deploying radio frequency identification (RFID) tags within 104 intertidal limestone boulders ranging in size from fine to very coarse (intermediate axis: 0.27–2.85 m). The study was conducted over 3 years (July 2015–July 2018) and encompassed numerous storm events. Tagged boulders were relocated during 17 field surveys and their positions recorded using a differential global positioning navigation satellite system (DGNSS). On completion, we identified boulder displacement in 69% of the tagged array. The accrued boulder transport distance amounted to 233.0 m from 195 incidents of displacement, including the movement of a boulder weighing an estimated 11.9 t. Transport was not confined to autumn and winter storms alone, as displacement was also recorded during summer months (April–September), despite the seasonally reduced wave magnitude. Boulder production by wave quarrying was documented in three tagged clasts, confirming observations that the shore platform is actively eroding. Incidents of overturning during transport were also recorded, including multiple overturning of clasts weighing up to 5 t. We further identify a statistically significant difference (maximum p-value ≤ 0.03) between the transport distances attributed to constrained and unconstrained boulders, suggesting that the pre-transport morphological setting exerts considerable control over boulder transport potential. The findings establish low to moderate storm waves as a key component in the evolution of the study site. More broadly, we claim that high-frequency, low-magnitude storms regularly modify these overlooked rocky coastal locations, suggesting that the hydrodynamic capability at such sites may previously have been underestimated. © 2020 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Assessing the significance of wet-canopy evaporation from forests during extreme rainfall events for flood mitigation in mountainous regions of the United Kingdom     

Trevor Page  Nick A. Chappell  Keith J. Beven  Barry Hankin  Ann Kretzschmar 《水文研究》2020,34(24):4740-4754

There is increased interest in the potential of tree planting to help mitigate flooding using nature-based solutions or natural flood management. However, many publications based upon catchment studies conclude that, as flood magnitude increases, benefit from forest cover declines and is insignificant for extreme flood events. These conclusions conflict with estimates of evaporation loss from forest plot observations of gross rainfall, through fall and stem flow. This study explores data from existing studies to assess the magnitudes of evaporation and attempts to identify the meteorological conditions under which they would be supported. This is achieved using rainfall event data collated from publications and data archives from studies undertaken in temperate environments around the world. The meteorological conditions required to drive the observed evaporation losses are explored theoretically using the Penman–Monteith equation. The results of this theoretical analysis are compared with the prevailing meteorological conditions during large and extreme rainfall events in mountainous regions of the United Kingdom to assess the likely significance of wet canopy evaporation loss. The collated dataset showed that event Ewc losses between approximately 2 and 38% of gross rainfall (1.5 to 39.4 mm day⁻¹) have been observed during large rainfall events (up to 118 mm day⁻¹) and that there are few data for extreme events (>150 mm day⁻¹). Event data greater than 150 mm (reported separately) included similarly high percentage evaporation losses. Theoretical estimates of wet-canopy evaporation indicated that, to reproduce the losses towards the high end of these observations, relative humidity and the aerodynamic resistance for vapour transport needed to be lower than approximately 97.5% and 0.5 to 2 s m⁻¹ respectively. Surface meteorological data during large and extreme rainfall events in the United Kingdom suggest that conditions favourable for high wet-canopy evaporation are not uncommon and indicate that significant evaporation losses during large and extreme events are possible but not for all events and not at all locations. Thus the disparity with the results from catchment studies remains.  相似文献   

厄尔尼诺年西北太平洋异常反气旋的年际变化特征及其影响   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1       下载免费PDF全文

李慧敏  徐海明  李智玉 《Acta Meteorologica Sinica》2017,75(4):581-595

基于1901-2000年多种海-气资料,分析了厄尔尼诺成熟年冬季-初夏西北太平洋异常反气旋（WNPAC）的年际变化特征及其对东亚气候的影响。结果表明,无论是厄尔尼诺事件成熟期的冬季还是次年的春季和初夏,WNPAC的年际变化主要存在两个空间变化型,即反映其强度变化的经验正交函数分解第1模态和反映其位置变化的第2模态。厄尔尼诺成熟年冬季WNPAC强度不仅与赤道中东太平洋海温异常有关,而且与太平洋西部（WP）型遥相关的强度有关,而其位置的变化则主要与西北太平洋局地海温异常以及北极涛动（AO）有关;次年春季,WNPAC的强度除了与赤道中东太平洋海温异常和太平洋西部型遥相关存在显著相关外,还与赤道大西洋海温异常有关,而其位置的变化则主要与西北太平洋局地海温异常和太平洋西部型遥相关有关;次年初夏,WNPAC强度主要与西北印度洋和西南印度洋的海温异常以及东亚-太平洋（EAP）型遥相关的强度有关。进一步分析表明,成熟年冬季-初夏WNPAC的强度和位置的变化均可对东亚地区降水异常分布产生影响,这对预测厄尔尼诺事件发生后冬季及后期春、夏季节东亚地区降水异常分布具有一定的指示意义。此外,次年初夏,WNPAC强度变化与西北太平洋台风发生频数存在显著负相关,即WNPAC越强,台风发生的频数越少,反之亦然。  相似文献   

利用COSMIC掩星资料研究对流层/下平流层大气比湿对ONI指数的响应          下载免费PDF全文

罗佳  陈志平  徐晓华 《地球物理学报》2018,61(2):466-476

本文利用2006年6月至2014年6月COSMIC掩星观测的水汽廓线,分析了对流层/下平流层（TLS）比湿信号对ENSO的响应.在数据处理中,将COSMIC掩星水汽廓线计算得到的全球比湿数据内插为1000~30 hPa区间水平分辨率为5°×5°的三维格网,在各等压面上求取各格网点去除年/月际信号后的比湿月异常值.然后在对比湿月异常时间序列低通滤波的基础上,进行经验正交分解（EOF）得到比湿主成分,并对该主成分信号进行二项式平滑;接下来将平滑后的主成分信号与反映ENSO活动的ONI指数进行相关处理,得到各等压面主成分信号相对于ONI指数的相关系数及对应的时间延迟.论文分析了包括Niño-3.4的5个代表性区域的TLS比湿异常主成分信号,结果表明：在各区域,采用本文先低通滤波再EOF分解的处理方法获得的TLS比湿异常主成分信号与ONI指数均有很强相关性,对流层相关系数绝对值达0.8以上,低平流层高于0.7,在300~200 hPa的上对流层达到峰值;各等压面上比湿异常主成分信号相对于ONI指数的时间延迟不尽相同,在对流层中比湿异常主成分信号普遍滞后于ONI指数1~6个月;在各区域,比湿异常主成分与ONI指数相关系数绝对值达到最大的等压面都接近250 hPa,最大相关系数绝对值均达到0.9以上.进一步对全球250 hPa等压面比湿异常主成分与ONI指数相关性的分析表明：两者强相关的区域主要集中在热带;在这些强相关区域,比湿异常主成分相对于ONI主要表现为滞后,且相关系数越大,相应的时间延迟越短.  相似文献   

Climate change effects on hydrological system conditions influencing generation of storm runoff in small Alpine catchments   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1       下载免费PDF全文

Gertraud Meißl  Herbert Formayer  Klaus Klebinder  Florian Kerl  Friedrich Schöberl  Clemens Geitner  Gerhard Markart  David Leidinger  Axel Bronstert 《水文研究》2017,31(6):1314-1330

Floods and debris flows in small Alpine torrent catchments (<10 km²) arise from a combination of critical antecedent system state conditions and mostly convective precipitation events with high precipitation intensities. Thus, climate change may influence the magnitude–frequency relationship of extreme events twofold: by a modification of the occurrence probabilities of critical hydrological system conditions and by a change of event precipitation characteristics. Three small Alpine catchments in different altitudes in Western Austria (Ruggbach, Brixenbach and Längentalbach catchment) were investigated by both field experiments and process‐based simulation. Rainfall–runoff model (HQsim) runs driven by localized climate scenarios (CNRM‐RM4.5/ARPEGE, MPI‐REMO/ECHAM5 and ICTP‐RegCM3/ECHAM5) were used in order to estimate future frequencies of stormflow triggering system state conditions. According to the differing altitudes of the study catchments, two effects of climate change on the hydrological systems can be observed. On one hand, the seasonal system state conditions of medium altitude catchments are most strongly affected by air temperature‐controlled processes such as the development of the winter snow cover as well as evapotranspiration. On the other hand, the unglaciated high‐altitude catchment is less sensitive to climate change‐induced shifts regarding days with critical antecedent soil moisture and desiccated litter layer due to its elevation‐related small proportion of sensitive areas. For the period 2071–2100, the number of days with critical antecedent soil moisture content will be significantly reduced to about 60% or even less in summer in all catchments. In contrast, the number of days with dried‐out litter layers causing hydrophobic effects will increase by up to 8%–11% of the days in the two lower altitude catchments. The intensity analyses of heavy precipitation events indicate a clear increase in rain intensities of up to 10%.  相似文献